Near term outlook
Source: Interim report January–March 2024
The good demand for fresh fibre paperboards seen in the beginning of the year is expected to continue in the second quarter. Demand is supported by restocking activities in the value chain. The overall demand for consumer products will continue to be influenced by the trend in consumers’ purchasing power and general purchasing behaviour.
Metsä Board’s paperboard delivery volumes are ex-pected to increase slightly in April–June compared the previous quarter (1–3/2024: 364,000 tonnes). The sales prices in local currencies are expected to remain stable.
More annual maintenance shutdowns will take place at the mills in April–June compared to the previous quarter.
Total costs, excluding pulp costs, are expected to remain stable.
Average pulp prices are expected to improve clearly from the first quarter. The global market situation for long-fibre pulp will remain tight, as supply is limited by the repair works at the Kemi bioproduct mill, pulp producers’ annual maintenance shutdowns and bottlenecks in global logistics. The demand and price situation for sawn timber is expected to improve slightly on a seasonal basis in the second quarter of the year.
In April–June 2024, exchange rate fluctuations, including the impact of hedges, will have a slightly positive impact on the operating result compared with January–March 2024 and a slightly positive impact compared with April–June 2023.
The negative result impact caused by the political strikes in Finland is expected to be roughly at the same level in April–June as in January–March, EUR 10–15 million. In April–June, the negative result impact caused by the gas explosion in Kemi is expected to amount to EUR 30–40 million. The estimate will be specified as a more precise schedule for the repair work and production restart becomes available. Metsä Board and Metsä Fibre have property damage and business interruption insurance policies in accordance with established practice, for which compensations are recognised later and are not included in the estimate. The estimates concerning the strikes and the gas explosion in Kemi include the impact of Metsä Fibre’s share of the result.
Result guidance for April–June 2024
Metsä Board’s comparable operating result in April–June 2024 is expected to be weaker than in January–March 2024.