Outlook and result guidance

Metsä Board estimates its near term outlook in each interim report and provides a verbal guidance on the development of the operating result for the next quarter.

Near term outlook

Source: Interim report January–September 2022

Demand for fresh fibre paperboards is expected to remain stable in the company’s main market areas in Europe and North America. The slowdown in global economic growth and decrease in consumer’s purchasing power create uncertainty in the operating environment.

Metsä Board’s paperboard delivery volumes in October–December are expected to remain at roughly the same level as in July–September (454,000 tonnes). The seasonal decline in demand in December may affect delivery volumes to some extent. The average prices of paperboards are expected to increase slightly.

Demand for long-fibre market pulp is expected to remain stable in Europe and China. The global supply of market pulp will continue to be restricted by bottlenecks in logistics. A stronger than expected slowdown in global economic growth and especially that of China, as well as the negative impacts of the European energy crisis, are creating uncertainty about the development of the market situation.

Cost inflation continues, especially in chemicals and energy. Other variable costs are expected to remain at least at the same level as in the third quarter. The increase in wood prices seen in the first half of the year, as well as the higher harvesting and transport costs are expected to lead to higher wood costs in the second half of the year than in the first half.
The negative result impact of the mills’ annual maintenance shutdowns in October–December 2022 is greater than in July–September 2022.

In October–December 2022, exchange rate fluctuations, including the impact of hedges, will have a positive impact on the result compared to July–September 2022 and a clearly positive impact compared to October–December 2021.

Result guidance for October–December 2022

Metsä Board’s comparable operating result in October–December 2022 is expected to be weaker than in July–September 2022.