Near term outlook
Source: Half-year financial report for January–June 2025
Consumers’ cautious purchase behaviour and the supply of fresh fibre paperboard outpacing demand, especially in the EMEA region, continue to affect the demand for paperboard. The import duties imposed by the US increase uncertainty and make it difficult to predict the development of paperboard sales.
In July–September 2025, Metsä Board’s total paperboard deliveries are expected to remain roughly at the same level as in April–June (4–6/2025: 360,000 tonnes; 7–9/2024: 388,000 tonnes).
Variable costs, excluding pulp costs, are expected to remain at the previous quarter’s level.
More annual maintenance and investment shutdowns are planned for the mills in July–September than in April–June. The Simpele board mill has an investment shutdown lasting approximately one month, and the Husum integrate has an annual maintenance shutdown. In addi-tion, market-related production adjustments will continue at other mills. These measures will have a significant negative impact on earnings.
In July–September 2025, exchange rate fluctuations, including the impact of hedges, will have a positive impact on the result compared to April–June 2025 and July–September 2024.
The market situation for pulp is not expected to improve significantly. The weakening of the dollar, subdued demand, and high raw material costs are limiting pulp production, especially in Europe. The demand for sawn timber is expected to decline seasonally. Metsä Board estimates, that the overall impact of pulp on operating result in July–September will be clearly negative compared to the previous quarter.
Operating cash flow is expected to turn positive in the third quarter of 2025 as a result of measures to release working capital.
Result guidance for July–September 2025
Metsä Board’s comparable operating result in July–September 2025 is expected to be weaker than in April–June 2025 (4–6/2025: EUR -22.7 million).