Near term outlook
Source: Interim report for January–March 2025
Consumers’ cautious purchase behaviour and the supply of fresh fibre paperboard outpacing demand, especially in the EMEA region, increase uncertainty in the development of paperboard sales. The import tariffs imposed by the US have a direct and indirect impact on sales development and the paperboard market in general, weakening predictability in the near future.
In April–June, Metsä Board’s total paperboard deliveries are expected to remain roughly at the same level as in January–March (Q1/2025: 367,000 tonnes).
Variable costs, excluding pulp costs, are expected to remain at the previous quarter’s level.
There are more planned annual maintenance shutdowns for the mills in April–June than in January–March, when there were hardly any annual maintenance shutdowns. Additionally, there are more market-based production curtailments than in January–March.
A repair shutdown will begin in late May at the evaporation plant of the associated company Metsä Fibre’s Kemi bioproduct mill. During this, the units that were damaged in the gas explosion and later repaired will be replaced with new units to ensure their usability and original life cycle. The repair shutdown, which will also affect Metsä Board’s white kraftliner production, is expected to last approximately one month. During the installation work, white kraftliner can be produced with special arrangements at a lower than normal production level. Metsä Board expects the repair shutdown to have a negative impact of approximately EUR 10 million on the operating result, including Metsä Fibre’s share of the impact. The claim settlement process related to the gas explosion, initiated in 2024, will be continued with the insurance company after the final repairs of the evaporation plant have been completed.
In April–June 2025, exchange rate fluctuations, including the impact of hedges, will have a neutral impact on the operating result compared to January–March 2025 and a negative impact compared to April–June 2024.
The demand situation for long-fibre market pulp is slightly better in Europe than in China, where demand has been weak in March–April. A slight seasonal pickup is expected in sawn timber demand.
Result guidance for April–June 2025
Metsä Board’s comparable operating result in April–June 2025 is expected to be weaker than in January–March 2025 (1–3/2025: EUR 22.8 million).