Near term outlook
Source: Interim report for January–September 2025
Metsä Board announced on 23 October 2025, that it will discontinue issuing result guidance for the time being, as the company does not consider it appropriate in the current volatile market environment.
Operating environment outlook for the next 3–6 months
Caution among consumers, and the US tariffs, affect the demand for paperboard and the predictability of sales development.
In Europe, overcapacity adds to market pressure. In North America, folding boxboard demand is expected to remain weak.
The pulp market situation is not expected to improve. In Europe, production continues to be restricted by muted demand, high raw material costs and a weaker dollar.
The declining trend in pulpwood prices in Finland and Sweden will support Metsä Board’s profitability from 2026.
Exchange rate fluctuations, including the impact of hedges, are expected to have a slightly negative impact in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a clearly negative impact in the first quarter of 2026.
Company-specific outlook for October–December 2025 (July–September 2025)
The company continues to apply cash-flow-based operational steering. Production adjustments based on the market situation are expected to continue at nearly all the mills and will continue to have a negative impact on profitability. Adjustments are mainly focused on the Husum mill integrate, reflecting the continued weakness in the pulp market and soft paperboard demand in North America.
Cash flow from operations is expected to remain positive. By the end of September, approximately EUR 120 million in working capital had been released, with a target of EUR 150 million for the whole second half of 2025.
A slight seasonal decrease is expected in paperboard delivery volumes from the previous quarter (Q3/2025: 332,000 tonnes).
Fewer planned maintenance and investment shutdowns will occur at mills than in the third quarter. The ramp-up of the Simpele board machine may involve some early-stage production-related uncertainty.
Personnel costs are expected to increase seasonally compared to the previous quarter.
The result for October–December 2025 result may include insurance claims related to the gas explosion at Metsä Fibre's bioproduct mill in spring 2024 and the recovery boiler damage in autumn 2024. The timing and scope of the compensation depend on the progress of ongoing negotiations with the insurance consortium.