Near term outlook
Source: Financial statements bulletin 2025
Operating environment outlook for the next 3–6 months
Consumers’ cautious purchasing behavior continues to weigh on packaging demand, making sales development less predictable. In Europe, excess capacity intensifies competitive pressure, while in North America, import tariffs are impacting the demand for paperboard.
Global demand for market pulp continues to be constrained by low utilisation rates in the paper and paperboard industry. In Europe, market-based production curtailments may continue due to weak demand, and cost and currency pressures.
The declining trend in pulpwood prices in Finland and Sweden that started last summer will support Metsä Board’s profitability from 2026 onwards.
Exchange rate fluctuations, including hedging, are expected to have a clearly negative impact on earnings compared to last year. For the first quarter of the year, the estimated impact on results is around EUR –20 million compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.
Company-specific outlook for January–March 2026 (October–December 2025)
Metsä Board’s operational steering remains cash-flow-based. Production adjustments based on the market situation will continue if demand does not improve The adjustments are expected to focus particularly on the Husum integrated mill, reflecting the subdued demand for market pulp and paperboard in North America
Working capital management remains key to securing cash flow for business operations. In the first quarter, working capital will increase due to seasonality and lower accounts payable compared with the previous quarter.
Delivery volumes of folding boxboard are expected to increase, while volumes of white kraftliners are expected to remain stable
Variable costs are expected to decrease significantly. This development is driven by the decline in pulpwood prices and the measures implemented under the company's transformation programme. In addition, reduced personnel and ICT costs will bring down fixed costs.