Near term outlook
Source: Interim report 1-3/2026
Operating environment outlook
Cautious consumer purchasing behaviour continues to
weigh on packaging demand and limit sales visibility. In
Europe, market overcapacity is increasing price pressure, while in North America paperboard demand is affected by import tariffs. However, overall packaging demand is expected to be supported by customer restocking and seasonality in the second quarter.
Global demand for market pulp continues to be constrained by low utilisation rates in the paper and paperboard industry. In Europe, market-based production curtailments may continue due to sluggish demand.
The rising prices of oil and natural gas caused by the
conflict in Iran is placing upward pressure on logistics
and chemical costs in particular. This is expected to reduce the operating result in the second quarter by approximately EUR 10 million. The company is pursuing mitigating measures to defend margins.
Exchange rate fluctuations, taking hedging into account, are expected to have a clearly negative result effect in 2026 compared to the previous year. The impact in April–June is expected to be slightly negative compared to January–March.
Company-specific outlook for Q2 2026 (vs Q1 2026)
Working capital management plays a key role in ensuring the cash flow for operations. The cash flow is expected to strengthen in the second quarter compared to the first.
Preparations for upcoming major shutdowns are keeping production levels high, particularly at the Kemi and Husum mills.
Delivery volumes of paperboard are expected to increase.
Energy and wood costs are expected to decline. The
measures implemented as part of Metsä Board’s transformation programme are expected to further lighten the cost structure. Fixed costs will increase due to seasonality – more maintenance and higher employee costs.